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Friday, March 15, 2013

I Hate You Maple Leafs, & Why The Desharnais Deal Is Gold

14 million dollar man
Well, thanks for nothing Toronto.  I really thought for awhile you would be able to hold onto that 1-0 lead you had, sadly, no chance.  Crosby worked his magic, once again making Pascal Dupuis look like a superstar and Leafs were downed 3-1.  I wish I had a Crosby at my job that set me up for success everyday.  Damn man.

Now next year we wouldn't have to worry about games like this since you make the playoffs based on divisions.  So basically next year is going to be super weird.  Will it feel like baseball, yes.  Will my generation be completely confused? Most certainly.  And how is the wild card going to work?  Is it a one game series, or a full series or best 3 of 5?  I can't find any info on that, help me out interwebs.

Oh, and Marc Bergevin signed David Desharnais in what appears to be a fit on insomnia.  14 million over 4 years for 3.5 millon a year.  He'll be 30 when his contract ends and this is super smart by Bergevin. Most professional athletes start declining around 28 or 29 years old as per Nate Silver's new book the Signal and the Noise.  So for those of you asking why the four year deal, and not a two year deal it's for this reason.  We don't want to lose Desharnais when he is 28 and on top of his game.  When his game begins its decline as he ages the contract is 1. tradable or 2. over and no need to worry about buy outs etc.  A lot of data and statistical analysis went into this contract, so four years for a 26 year old is a good deal. Now, the 14 million dollar question.  Is Desharnais worth 3.5 million per year?  My answer is that he is right at this moment.  In three years from now who knows, but at that point his contract is tradable, and maybe even desirable for the Habs to trade him.

We'll wait and see.

I've also been working on a very primary data set that will predict Habs games and I'll let you in on a little secret.  If the Habs are playing a 7:30 game on a Tuesday night you better be laying the big money.  If it's against a SouthEast division team, bet the mortgage. But remember, it the game starts at 7PM you might want to keep your money in your wallet.

See you tomorrow in Jersey.

Happy Birthday AngryCanucksFan.